describe the likelihood that events will happen, and use that information to make predictions
use mathematical language, including the terms “impossible”, “unlikely”, “equally likely”, “likely”, and “certain”, to describe the likelihood of events happening, represent this likelihood on a probability line, and use it to make predictions and informed decisions
Provide students with a range of events, as shown below, and have them place the events at the appropriate spots on the probability line according to the five terms (impossible, unlikely, equally likely, likely, and certain). Have students identify other events to add to their probability line as well.
It is important for students to understand that probability is based not on absolute thinking but on proportional thinking.
To this end, show students five spinners, where Spinner A is all red, Spinner B is mostly red with a little bit of blue, Spinner C has an equal amount of red and blue, Spinner D has more blue than red, and Spinner E is all blue.
Ask students the likelihood of spinning blue for each of the spinners, using the mathematical language “impossible”, “unlikely”, “equally likely”, “likely”, and “certain”. Ask students to explain their thinking. Then discuss what would happen if the spinners came in different sizes. Would it affect the probability?
make and test predictions about the likelihood that the mean, median, and mode(s) of a data set will be the same for data collected from different populations
Tell students that they will be collecting data from another Grade 4 class for a question for which they already have data from their classmates. Have them predict the likelihood that the data from the other class will have the same mean, mode, or median. Then have them collect the data. Finally, have them compare the result with their prediction.